Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 4.154161e-02 0.048144 0.054952 0.062461 0.070477 0.078749 0.087898
2025-10-19 3.125324e-02 0.040757 0.051114 0.063077 0.076370 0.090560 0.106733
2025-10-26 2.432873e-02 0.035408 0.048086 0.063291 0.080705 0.099753 0.121909
2025-11-02 1.975482e-02 0.031871 0.046358 0.064285 0.085312 0.108738 0.136395
2025-11-09 1.573018e-02 0.028331 0.044087 0.064173 0.088251 0.115512 0.148105
2025-11-16 1.160217e-02 0.023984 0.040308 0.061817 0.088196 0.118555 0.155310
2025-11-23 8.418698e-03 0.020366 0.037041 0.059740 0.088187 0.121416 0.162099
2025-11-30 6.788715e-03 0.018752 0.036219 0.060577 0.091573 0.128154 0.173277
2025-12-07 5.592618e-03 0.017603 0.035893 0.061944 0.095527 0.135502 0.185117
2025-12-14 4.837561e-03 0.017066 0.036348 0.064277 0.100640 0.144204 0.198523
2025-12-21 3.849178e-03 0.015886 0.035748 0.065115 0.103810 0.150524 0.209085
2025-12-28 3.815825e-03 0.016587 0.037966 0.069775 0.111839 0.162732 0.226634
2026-01-04 2.565828e-03 0.014508 0.035909 0.068664 0.112666 0.166428 0.234390
2026-01-11 1.933697e-03 0.013602 0.035614 0.069974 0.116625 0.173992 0.246835
2026-01-18 1.295489e-03 0.012380 0.034681 0.070308 0.119265 0.179906 0.257286
2026-01-25 8.789322e-04 0.011547 0.034302 0.071376 0.122828 0.186935 0.269060
2026-02-01 4.714087e-04 0.010352 0.033168 0.071261 0.124768 0.191903 0.278309
2026-02-08 1.082612e-04 0.008467 0.030539 0.068770 0.123413 0.192656 0.282357
2026-02-15 1.840051e-07 0.006882 0.028210 0.066573 0.122346 0.193691 0.286682
2026-02-22 NaN 0.006346 0.027905 0.067459 0.125461 0.200007 0.297465
2026-03-01 NaN 0.006007 0.027969 0.068905 0.129336 0.207286 0.309428
2026-03-08 NaN 0.005965 0.028675 0.071371 0.134627 0.216378 0.323632
2026-03-15 NaN 0.005516 0.028413 0.072257 0.137703 0.222623 0.334318